Afro-Netizen Election Predictions

Electoral Vote Prediction: Kerry over Bush, 322 to 216!

I know you think I'm crazy for predicting what amounts to an electoral landslide, but I have every confidence that the depth and diversity of hatred for Bush has not been adequately picked up by pollsters. And even the best pollsters and pundits agree that the X factor are that demographic that includes first-time voters who are overwhelmingly young, single and of color.

So, here are the states I believe Kerry will win:

The entire Northeast Corridor (including New Hampshire and all of Maine's 4 electoral votes) will go to Kerry.

Kerry will win Pennsylvania.

I also predict Kerry will carry West Virginia.

In the South, Kerry will win Florida by a wide enough margin to obviate the need for a recount.

In the Midwest, he will take Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa & Missouri, but will lose in Wisconsin.

I also predict Kerry will lose Colorado (and that Colorado's Amendment 36 will not pass), so that Bush will receive all of the state's 9 electoral votes.

Kerry will pick up California, Washington state, Oregon, New Mexico, and Nevada, but will not take Arizona. (While Nevada has been leaning Bush in all the polls, I think it'll tip for Kerry given the incredibly high rate of new voter registrations this year. I also think there may be recounts in New Mexico and/or Nevada if Kerry doesn't have a significant margin of victory in these states.)

Kerry will win Hawaii, but only by a hair.

Despite the mackliciousness of Bill Clinton's 11th hour stumping in his old stomping grounds, Kerry will not carry Arkansas, nor John Edwards' native "cradle of the mill worker", North Carolina, which only the most optimistic Democratic operatives thought might go Blue.

On the popular vote front, I predict Kerry will get at least 2 million more votes than Bush.

Sadly, I think that the GOP will retain control of the House and Senate, but I'm not going to predict the number of seats won/lost by each party.

Finally, I predict Alan Keyes will beat Barack Obama for the open Senate seat in Illinois.

. . . Pysche!!!

As is my consistent, if not ubiquitous schpiel over the past year or so, Blackfolk will turn out in record numbers to carry Kerry to victory, despite our tepid support for his candidacy and the recent and highly dubious nationwide poll conducted by the Black think tank, the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which estimated that Bush will get 18% of the Black vote.

Let's hope we'll know the undisputed results before Thanksgiving!

Vote early and often!!!

Comments

[Felipe Washington]

Your election predictions were pretty humoruous. You obviously have no clue about what the rest of the country feels or believes. If you would take your head out of the sand , start thinking for yourself and stop following the herds you might possibly come up with an orginal thought and a semblance of intelligence - but that probabiltiy is slim.

[Steve]

Wow, you were close.